October Shopping Scams: Why Early Holiday Shoppers Are Prime Targets
The Ground Zero of Holiday Shopping Fraud
October 2025 has emerged as the epicenter of shopping fraud, marking a dramatic shift in how cybercriminals target consumers preparing for the holiday season. With Black Friday still weeks away, scammers are no longer waiting for the traditional shopping rush – they're starting their campaigns earlier and more aggressively than ever before.
The numbers paint an alarming picture: In 2024, 77% of all Black Friday-themed spam emails were classified as scams, a 7% increase from 2023 when 7 out of every 10 Black Friday-themed spam emails were scams. This upward trend has continued into 2025, with October serving as the launching pad for increasingly sophisticated fraud campaigns that will culminate during the holiday shopping season.
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The Explosive Growth of Early Holiday Scams
Email Fraud Reaches New Heights
The surge in shopping-related scam emails during October is staggering. Between November 1 and November 14, security vendor Egress detected a 237% increase in phishing emails relating specifically to Black Friday and Cyber Monday, versus the period September 1-October 31. This dramatic spike shows how scammers are ramping up their activities well before the actual shopping events.
Even more concerning, some security firms have reported far more dramatic increases. During Thanksgiving week, the number of Christmas-themed phishing attacks jumped 327% compared with what was seen between November 4 and 9, and phishing attacks referring to Black Friday and Cyber Monday shot up 692%. These percentages reflect the massive scale at which criminals are operating, flooding inboxes with fraudulent offers designed to catch early bird shoppers off guard.
The Dark Web Preparation
What many consumers don't realize is that the groundwork for October shopping scams begins months in advance. Cybercriminals start gearing up for Black Friday scams in January, indicated by increased dark web searches for related keywords. This long-term planning allows scammers to develop sophisticated infrastructure and strategies that will be deployed when consumers are most vulnerable.
The Fake Retail Site Epidemic
Scale of the Problem
The proliferation of fake online stores has reached crisis levels. Norton's AI algorithms detect more than 1,000 new fake e-shops emerging every day. During peak shopping periods, this number skyrockets even higher. In 2024, there was a 110% increase in domains hosting fake stores from August to October, representing an all-time high in fraudulent retail activity.
The infrastructure behind these operations is staggering. The BogusBazaar network alone has processed over one million orders since 2021, with over 850,000 shoppers falling victim, mostly from Western Europe and the US. This single network demonstrates the industrial scale at which modern shopping scams operate.
AI-Powered Deception
The latest evolution in fake retail sites involves artificial intelligence. Threat actors' use of Large Language Models (LLMs) to generate long- and short-form text for product descriptions on these sites has made fraudulent stores increasingly difficult to distinguish from legitimate ones. These AI-generated descriptions are often more convincing than poorly translated text that once characterized scam sites.
Fake e-shops accounted for 23% of all social media scams during Q4/2024, and in 2025, e-shop scams in the first quarter of 2025 were up 790% compared to the same period in 2024. This explosive growth correlates directly with economic uncertainty and rising prices, as consumers increasingly search for bargain alternatives online.
Geographic Targeting
Scammers have become sophisticated in their geographic targeting. Scammers have tailored their messages and tactics to appeal to different groups of shoppers, ranging from tech enthusiasts to fashion aficionados, with campaigns targeting various demographics and regions. They use geo-restriction tools to make their scams more believable, showing Spanish shoppers Spanish-specific deals and American consumers US-centric offers.
Social Media: The Perfect Storm for Fraud
Platform Vulnerability
Social media has become the preferred hunting ground for shopping scammers. One in four people who reported losing money to fraud since 2021 said it started on social media, with reported losses reaching $2.7 billion during the same period, far higher than any other method of contact.
The problem has intensified dramatically in recent years. Consumers lost more than $1 billion to fraud on social media in the first six months of this year, according to the Federal Trade Commission. That's almost ten times what it was five years ago. This exponential growth shows how effective social media has become as a vehicle for shopping fraud.
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The Mechanics of Social Media Scams
Social media gives scammers an edge in several ways. They can easily manufacture a fake persona, or hack into your profile, pretend to be you, and con your friends. They can learn to tailor their approach from what you share on social media. Scammers also leverage sophisticated advertising tools to target specific demographics with precision.
Reports during the first half of the year show that the most frequently reported scams on social media are related to online shopping, with 44 percent of reports pointing to fraud related to buying or selling products online. The majority of victims never receive the items they ordered, particularly after responding to ads on major platforms.
Age Demographics and Vulnerability
While older adults are often considered more vulnerable to scams, the data tells a different story when it comes to social media shopping fraud. About three-quarters of adults under 30, as well as those ages 30 to 49 and 50 to 64, report ever experiencing an online scam or attack. Younger consumers' comfort with online shopping and social media actually makes them prime targets for sophisticated shopping scams.
The Counterfeit Goods Crisis
Scale and Economic Impact
The counterfeit goods market has exploded alongside legitimate e-commerce. Nationwide in Fiscal Year 2020, CBP seized 26,503 shipments containing goods that violated intellectual property rights, with the total estimated value of the seized goods, had they been genuine, nearly $1.3 billion. These figures represent only a fraction of the counterfeit goods that successfully reach consumers.
The Anti-Counterfeiting Group (ACG) has warned of a massive increase of fake goods for sale during the run up to Black Friday and Cyber Monday via online platforms and social media sites. October marks the beginning of this surge, as criminals stockpile counterfeit merchandise and prepare distribution channels for the holiday rush.
Health and Safety Risks
Beyond economic losses, counterfeit goods pose serious safety risks. Many of these products may not meet government-determined safety standards. There's a high potential risk of serious harm, especially with medications, skin creams and vitamins, items meant to keep you or a pet safe, like brake pads, life jackets and dog leashes. Even seemingly harmless counterfeit clothing can contain dangerous chemicals like lead.
The Third-Party Seller Problem
E-commerce sites like Amazon and Walmart.com allow third-party sellers, or independent vendors, to use their platforms to sell goods. Counterfeiters have found this to be a loophole to get in front of consumers. In response, Amazon said that it stopped over 700,000 bad actors from setting up selling accounts and that it identified, seized and disposed of over 7 million counterfeit products globally in 2023 alone.
The Technology Arms Race
AI and Deepfakes
The integration of artificial intelligence has fundamentally changed the scam landscape. Scammers use AI-generated images to quickly create eye-catching websites, social media ads, fake identification documents, making their operations appear more legitimate than ever before. Deepfake technology allows scammers to impersonate trusted figures and brands with unprecedented accuracy.
Payment System Exploitation
Modern scammers have become sophisticated in their payment collection methods. Scammers tell you to pay with gift cards, wire transfers, payment apps, or cryptocurrency. Only scammers tell you to pay that way. These payment methods are preferred because they're difficult to trace and nearly impossible to reverse once the transaction is complete.
Red Flags and Warning Signs
Identifying Fake Retail Sites
Several key indicators can help consumers identify fraudulent shopping sites:
- Unrealistic Pricing: If deals seem too good to be true, they probably are
- Poor Website Quality: Look for spelling errors, broken links, and low-quality images
- Limited Contact Information: Legitimate businesses provide multiple ways to contact them
- Suspicious URLs: Check for slight misspellings of known brand names
- Payment Methods: Be wary of sites that only accept wire transfers or gift cards
Email and Message Red Flags
Urgent subjects and text lures such as limited sales, limited stock and security issues or suspicious activity on financial and shopping accounts remain some of the most effective lures used by scammers during the shopping season. Any message creating artificial urgency should be viewed with extreme skepticism.
Protecting Yourself: A Comprehensive Strategy
Verification Before Purchase
- Research the Seller: Always verify legitimacy through reviews and online searches
- Check URLs Carefully: Ensure sites begin with "https://" and look for the padlock icon
- Compare Prices: If prices are significantly lower than elsewhere, investigate why
- Use Secure Payment Methods: Credit cards offer better fraud protection than debit cards
- Avoid Public WiFi: Never shop using unsecured public internet connections
Platform-Specific Precautions
For social media shopping:
- Never buy directly through social media ads without researching the seller
- Be skeptical of heavily discounted luxury items
- Check if the seller has a legitimate website outside of social media
- Look for verified seller badges on platforms that offer them
Reporting and Recovery
If you fall victim to a scam:
- Contact your bank or credit card company immediately
- Report the fraud to the FTC at ReportFraud.ftc.gov
- File reports with the platform where the scam occurred
- Document all communications and transactions
- Monitor your accounts for additional fraudulent activity
The Economic and Social Impact
Business Losses
According to the International Anti-Counterfeiting Coalition, businesses worldwide lose an estimated $600 to $700 billion annually due to counterfeiting. These losses translate into job cuts, reduced innovation, and higher prices for legitimate goods as businesses try to recoup their losses.
Consumer Trust Erosion
The proliferation of scams has created a crisis of confidence in online shopping. 73% of U.S. adults have experienced some kind of online scam or attack, leading to increased skepticism and reluctance to engage in e-commerce, even with legitimate retailers.
Looking Ahead: The Future of Shopping Scams
Emerging Trends
As we move deeper into the 2025 holiday season, several trends are emerging:
- Earlier Campaign Launches: Scammers are starting their operations earlier each year
- Cross-Platform Coordination: Fraudsters coordinate campaigns across multiple platforms simultaneously
- Subscription Scams: Fake subscription services that auto-renew without consent
- Cryptocurrency Integration: Increased use of crypto for both payments and fake investment opportunities
- Supply Chain Exploitation: Scammers capitalize on legitimate supply chain issues to explain non-delivery
Industry Response
Retailers and platforms are fighting back with enhanced security measures. Major email providers now require authentication protocols, and e-commerce platforms are implementing AI-powered fraud detection. However, the cat-and-mouse game continues, with scammers constantly evolving their tactics.
Conclusion
October has become ground zero for shopping fraud because it represents the perfect confluence of factors: eager early shoppers, sophisticated scam infrastructure prepared months in advance, and the psychology of bargain hunting. The statistics are sobering – from the 495% increase in scam emails to the billions lost in counterfeit goods and social media fraud.
The transformation of October from a quiet pre-holiday month to the launching pad for massive fraud campaigns represents a fundamental shift in how criminals operate. They no longer wait for peak shopping days but instead begin their assault when consumers' guards are down and their excitement for holiday deals is just beginning to build.
As consumers, awareness is our first line of defense. Understanding that October is now a high-risk period for shopping scams, recognizing the red flags of fraudulent sites and offers, and maintaining healthy skepticism about deals that seem too good to be true are essential survival skills in the modern digital marketplace.
The battle against shopping scams requires vigilance not just during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, but throughout the entire October-to-December shopping season. By staying informed, shopping smart, and reporting suspicious activity, consumers can protect themselves and help disrupt the criminal networks that profit from shopping fraud.
Remember: in the age of AI-powered scams and sophisticated fraud networks, if a deal seems too good to be true in October, it almost certainly is. Shop smart, stay skeptical, and protect your financial information as zealously as scammers pursue it.
